Fearless Forecast: Who survives the Battle of Winterfell

In epic Game of Thrones fashion, Episode 2 of the eighth and final season of HBO’s epic series : A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms saw the character anticipating their demise after they learn that the Night King’s Army is upon them. Many of these characters are shown commemorating their last day on the planet doing all sorts of things which makes us wonder : With all of our favorite characters saying goodbye ahead of an epic showdown, is there actually a possibility that they will live through it? The short answer is no. Not a chance. Nada. Zilch.

So here’s my fearless forecast on who lives through the Battle of Winterfell. Let’s see how it stacks up to the odds tomorrow.

Greyworm and the Unsullied. I like Greyworm. I really do. But after listening to his hopes and dreams with his lady love Missandrei last episode, it sort of felt ominous of what was to come. Game of Thrones is as far detached from a Disney fairy tale and I fear that Greyworm and his Unsullied may become casualties — most especially since the preview showed him and his crew up in the frontlines. Missandrei could well fulfill their dream of sailing south though. Maybe that’s a concession showrunners are willing to make. Or they could die together…. hmm..

Likelihood of survival: 20%

Brienne of Tarth. It seems that after several seasons of building up the character, she has finally fulfilled her lifelong dream of being Knighted. Thanks to her secret crush, Ser Jamie Lannister. While this may be construed as a happy occasion to some, the timing couldn’t be worse. Achieving your dream on the eve of the most dangerous battle? Plus the fact that she will command one of battallions against the Night King himself? Not to mention the fact that she was seen rallying the troop and yelling Stand Your Ground at the trailer? Nope. Not a good sign indeed. Brienne may be ready to go, after all.

Likelihood of survival: 15%

Jamie Lannister. Actor Nikolaj Coster-Waldau revealed in an interview that he will only be appearing in four episodes this season. But the Battle of Winterfell will take place in Episode 3. If you do the math, this could mean that he survives tomorrow’s episode and dies in Episode 4, or that his final episode happens well after the battle is over and it has something to do with Cersei? Will be become a Queenslayer as well as a Kingslayer? One might argue that like Brienne, his journey has come to a close with the complete evolution of his character. But I am confident that his story does not end tomorrow, not yet. We have to wait for tomorrow to find out.

Likelihood of survival: 90%

Arya Stark. I have faith in Arya. I believe she will survive because she is armed not only with one, but two weapons made of materials that can slay a White Walker (Beelish’s blade made of Valyrian Steel, and Gendry’s spear made of Dragonglass). I think Arya has not yet used up all of her tricks and she still has a long way to go to complete her list for me, its a high chance of survival for Arya. Plus the fact that George RR Martin’s wife threatened to leave him if he kills of Arya or Sansa. Things are looking good for the Stark girls.

Likelihood of survival: 100%

Gendry. Unlike Arya, Gendry may have used up his usefulness in the battle after tirelessly forging weapons made of dragonglass in Winterfell. The fact that he and Arya did the deed does nothing for his storyline. Not now that it has been revealed that that the Baratheon campaign for the throne was baseless. Turns out his dad wasn’t the rightful king after all and thus nullifies his significance in the quest for the Iron Throne. Sorry, Gendry.

Likelihood of survival: 10%

Theon Greyjoy. Theon has been through a lot and after several seasons of hating him, I really started to feel sorry for him, especially with the Ramsay Bolton arc. He is well on his way to full redemption as he swears to protect Bran from the Night King to make up for his betrayal of Rob and the entire Stark family. I have no doubt he will have his moment of glory but his chances of survival is close to none.

Likelihood of survival: none

Bran Stark. When it was revealed that the only reason the Night King was going after Bran was the fact that he wanted to erase this world to rule in a world of endless night, I had second thoughts about Bran’s survival, but the fact that he holds the key to past, present and future may work to his advantage. The fact that he already confirmed the biggest reveal in the series, does not. If he survives, it mean the Night King fails. If he does not, the Night King arc becomes a revenge story. I still think he will survive though.

Likelihood of survival: 80%

Sansa Stark. Actress Sophie Turner has made it no secret that she will relish her character’s death in the series because of so many others who came before her. However, a lot are hoping that she will survive after all she has been through as well as her full character evolution. I think she will survive to help rebuild her home after the war is over since it seems to be her main purpose in the narrative.

Likelihood of survival: 100%

Ser Jorah Mormont. When Ser Jorah counseled Dany to trust Tyrion and gave her advice about Sansa, I had a very bad feeling about it. It seems like he was telling Dany that she did not need her. When he accepted Heartsbane though, I had a better feeling because then, he would have to return the sword to Sam, as this was the only memento he had left of his family, burned to a crisp by Queen Dany. Perhaps, his destiny is to stay by Dany’s side until she marches south?

Likelihood of survival: 50%

Tyrion Lannister. Daenerys wants him in the crypt because of what he can do for the good of Westeros in the future. Tyrion has survived more scrapes than any other character in the show using only his wits and his courage. I won’t be surprised that his optimism in the last episode would actually prove true and that he survives the battle to serve as a worthy adviser to the next person who will sit on the Iron Throne.

Likelihood of survival: 100%

Daenerys Targaryen. After finding out that Jon and not she, was the rightful heir to the Iron Throne, Dany’s campaign suddenly fizzles. However, it may take several more episodes for her to come to terms with what this means for her and her leadership motivations so I think she will survive Winterfell to go head to head against Cersei. The fact that she has dragons  is also a plus for her survival stats.

Likelihood of survival: 90%

Jon Snow. Can Jon Snow actually be Azor Ahai or the Prince that was Promised? Jon Snow aka Aegon Targaryen always seems to have luck on his side more than anything. He’s far from being the best battle strategist, or the most firm leader but he has charisma, pedigree and a pure heart of a hero. Unfortunately, heroes don’t always survive and Jon has been known to go the extra mile when it comes to his family. I would like to give him a high survival stat because he seems more significant to the story but Game of Thrones doesn’t always play fair. There is a high possibility that he could sacrifice his life to save Dany or Bran and it would be completely in character for him to do so. Having his own dragon and being the rightful King to the Iron Throne will never change the Jon Snow we know.

Likelihood of survival: 50% 

How does the rest of the pack fare?

Ser Davos Seaworthy (80%): This guy has survived a lot. I don’t doubt he can survive this one too.

Tormund Giantsbane (50%). After the Battle of the Bastards, I can’t tell if Tormund is invincible like he claims. I like the guy and his dynamic with Jon and Brienne. He is the only surviving wildling but he is all over the place, so I seriously can’t tell.

Lord Commander Edd Tollet (30%): Edd is not the best fighter and he has never had close combat experience with the White Walkers. He will fight to the death, sure, but I’m not confident he will survive. Hopefully, he does and he gets laid. The poor lad has been through enough.

The Hound (90%). The Hound is battle tested and has come face to face with death. I think he will become a useful tool in the Battle of Winterfell and march south to face off with his big brother, the reanimated Mountain, Ser Gregor Clegane. Both siblings might die but its bound to be a glorious fight.

Beric Dondarrion (20%). Beric is on his last life –his last chance at fulfilling the will of the Lord of the Light. Perhaps it is fitting that he finds rest in Winterfell, allied with a king that the Lord of the Light has similarly risen from the dead (Jon Snow).

Podrick (60%). I’m giving Podrick a better chance because of how beautifully sang Jenny’s Song last episode but the 40 percent death rate is also because of that. Pod has been a loyal squire but his battle skills are not yet up to par. He could take down a couple of White Walkers and die heroically in battle or he could live out his days pleasuring ladies. Who knows?

Sam Tarly (100%). Someone needs to tell this story. And after all this is over, I have confidence that Sam will do the best job.

That’s it guys. That’s as far as I would dare to venture a day before “The Battle of Winterfell” airs.